Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts

01 October 2015

'Liberal' and 'Conservative' Theories

Recently I found myself unfortunately coerced into reading "Jeb Bush Keeps Repeating A Phrase That's Central To A Liberal Economic Theory" (link). The article brought to my attention that the public sees theory in a much different light than I - and hopefully most members of academia - do.

The author asserts the Keynesian economics is a "liberal theory" as if scientific theories (social or otherwise) simply exist to advocate different political positions. This view represents a complete failure to understand the way that science is done. Rather than assuming a conclusion and attempting to prove that conclusion by any means possible, a good scientist will not assume that any position is correct and instead see what the data suggests and come of with a theory that attempts to match that data. Keynesian theory is no more 'liberal' than monetarism is 'conservative'. Yes, both economic ideologies are characterized by differing assumptions, but those assumptions do not come from inherent political bias.

The view of theory presented in the article can be especially dangerous because it allows for politicians to write off any bit of theory on the grounds that it is a 'liberal' theory or a 'conservative' theory. This is how the Cameron government in the UK can ignore the fact that austerity reduces GDP in even the most friction-less models (e.g. here) by arguing that any theory that suggests austerity is contractionary has a liberal bias. 

Behind this whole issue seems to be the idea that every side in any political argument is at least somewhat right regardless of whether their opinions are backed up by academia. Essentially, politicians can redefine the political center whenever they choose and the media won't try and stop them. No matter how insane a policy proposal is, it can not be one hundred percent wrong in the eyes of the public and the media. 

For this reason, the media ought to shift its primary concern from representing each position fairly to determining the facts or the consensus theories and criticizing those who fail to understand or accept them. Policy proposals that are in direct contempt of the scientific consensus should not be tolerated.



11 September 2015

Two Papers Every Republican Candidate (And Everyone) Should Read

Here's a list of a few papers that all the Republican (this applies less to Democrats, at least at the moment) candidates for US president in 2016 should make themselves familiar with:

1. "How Far Are We From The Slippery Slope? The Laffer Curve Revisited" - Mathias Trabandt and Harald Uhlig:

I recently found this paper while browsing ideas for estimates of the US Laffer curve based off of a neoclassical growth model. This paper (download here) has a couple of key points for the Republican candidates. Namely 1. The US is currently on the left side of its Laffer curve and 2. Because of this, tax cuts will not be self-financing (take that Jeb!).

2. "Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier" - Michael Woodford:

This is actually one of the papers that has most influenced my understanding of fiscal policy. Woodford's model doesn't have all the bells and whistles of typical DSGE's, so the analysis is extremely clear and identifies the effects of fiscal policy given different monetary policy choices. Three main insights that I get from it are: 1. If the central bank pegs the real interest rate, the multiplier equals one 2. If the central bank pegs the inflation rate, the multiplier equals the flexible price multiplier 3. If money is neutral, the multiplier is greater than zero 4. At the zero lower bound, the multiplier can exceed one (download here).